Prof. Aleksandar Novaković

School of Mathematics and Physics, Queen’s University Belfast, United Kingdom
Faculty of Business and IT, Ontario Tech University, Oshawa, Canada

Title: Assessing the Impact of Public Health Interventions and Simulating COVID-19 Spread in Northern Ireland Using the CP-ABM Approach

Abstract

This talk presents the CP-ABM approach, a novel methodology developed in response to the challenges of modelling COVID-19 infection spread for the Northern Ireland COVID-19 Modelling Group. This methodology uniquely integrates change point detection (CP) and agent-based modelling (ABM) techniques to identify key events that drive shifts in population contact patterns and simulate individual behaviours and interactions within a population, respectively. Calibrated to replicate the entire 1.8 million population of Northern Ireland, the CP-ABM methodology was used to successfully simulate two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic and capture the infection dynamics of the virus. It also enabled successful quantification of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as mask mandates and lockdowns on reducing virus transmission, as well as accurate estimation of the role that asymptomatic individuals have in its spread. The CP-ABM methodology is programming language agnostic, thus allowing its wider application.

Biography

Dr Novakovic is Lecturer and Associate Director of Virtual institute for Data Intensive Research at Queen’s University Belfast (UK) and Adjunct Professor at Ontario Tech University (Canada). He is also a Fellow of the Higher Educations Academy (UK) and holds a PhD in Artificial Intelligence and Statistics from Queen’s University Belfast and a PhD in Applied Informatics and Computer Engineering from the University of Kragujevac (Serbia). His research interests include streaming analytics, explainable AI, swarm intelligence, and federated learning, with applications spanning healthcare, agriculture, smart cities, and sustainable development. He is particularly passionate about contributing to affordable and clean energy (SDG 7) and climate action (SDG 13). Dr Novakovic has published extensively in top-tier journals, secured significant research funding, and developed innovative AI models adopted by government and healthcare institutions in Northern Ireland.